5 secrets to make money from betting

We all have our own reasons to bet, whether it’s pitting our wits against the bookies, having fun among friends or adding drama to the matchday experience.

Ultimately, however, we all want to know how to make money from betting.

First tip for free: it's not easy to beat the bookie. They have countless hours of experience and more data points and knowledge than most bettors could ever dream of. But that doesn't mean they are unbeatable.

If you’re just dipping in for a Grand National punt or a weekly bet on your team then the only rule you need is to never bet more than you can afford to lose. Because, without a methodical approach, you will eventually end up on the losing side.

But if you’re interested in betting as a serious hobby with the intention of making money over a sustained period of time, you need an entirely different mindset.

Here are my top five tips for successful betting. Let me know in the comments below which you agree with and which tips you would add.

Tip #1 - Boring bets yield exciting results

Here’s one for the thrill-seekers; bet on boring outcomes. Back no first-half goals. Select ‘no goalscorer’ (but never 0-0 for reasons I explain here). Opt for under 2.5 goals and go low on card counts.

Why? Because bettors overwhelmingly back events they think are likely to happen rather than focussing on things they don't think will happen. 'Fun punters', who make up a significant percentage of the market, almost always back exciting outcomes. Even professional gamblers are generally lured by the hope of excitement.

Bookmakers know this so limit potential losses by making the odds of events (goals, cards etc) shorter than they should be. They don't want to pay out tens of thousands of bettors at high odds - they protect themselves by making the most heavily bet odds shorter than they should be, which leaves the less frequently bet odds longer than they should be.

Therefore, the value almost always lies in the boring markets.

Tip #2 - Swim against the tide

The starting point in any match bet should be to look for why the common consensus could be wrong, as the value will lie in opposing it. If everyone says United are going to win, set out to oppose United. If the Blues are the form team and media darlings, look for reasons to lay them.

Often, you will not find a reason to justify laying the favourite. Manchester City's opponents in recent years have frequently had extremely tempting odds to back them, but City have often been so relentless that those odds rarely collect.

But Manchester City are the exception to the rule - and even Pep Guardiola's team slips up regularly enough - and the principle remains sounds. Bookies offer short odds for popular teams, knowing that the vast of bets will follow the narrative.

But narratives are very often exaggerated. It is risky for reporters and pundits to put their heads above the parapet and suggest a winning team's success might be about to end as they will look daft if it doesn't. The safer route for them is to say a similar thing to everyone else or at least be very cautious if going against it. And thus a narrative builds that exaggerates the reality of the situation.

Common sense and research are still essential as narratives are based on an element of substance, but small teams often ‘shock’ bigger teams and will almost always be overpriced to do so.

Tip #3 - Exploit bookies' blind spots

Betting companies have banks of data and research but they don't have a monopoly on knowledge and they don’t have every area of every sport covered.

You can pretty much rule out knowing more than the bookies about the major sporting competitions, but if you specialise in a fringe area then you have a chance of exceeding their expertise.

If you regularly watch your local football team in the Isthmian League, you have an in-depth knowledge of Aussie Rules or have Swedish family who regularly report back on the state of the Superettan, you probably already have an edge – use it.

Or you could simply pick a market and target it. My greatest successes came in the Finnish top flight and Scottish Leagues One and Two. I barely ever watched matches in those leagues; I studied form and trends and kept abreast of local team news (which, unlike in top-flight football, can have a serious impact at lower levels) and that was enough to give me an edge.

Tip #4 - Become an xG nerd

Expected Goals (xG) is one of the most misunderstood (read my xG explainer here) and bizarrely divisive stats in football, but you need to become best buddies with xG.

For some reason, old-school football supporters seem to take offence at it but xG is not trying to replace scorelines or undermine a team's achievements – it simply offers more detail on the match that has just unfolded.

And bettors would be wise to use xG as their statistical starting point in forming an opinion as often a scoreline will not reliably reflect the balance of a game. Team B could have been all over Team A for 89 minutes but suffer from poor finishing, bad luck, an inspired goalkeeping performance or any number of freak occurrences that stop them from scoring.

Then, in a rare breakaway, Team A races up the other end, nicks a scruffy 90th-minute goal and wins the game. Scoreline: Team A 1-0 Team B.

Team A are not suddenly the better team, they just got all the breaks on that occasion. And perhaps they again got lucky in another game or two close to that match. If you're looking through a list of results without watching every game in its entirety (which even professional gamblers won't have time to do) then you could be lured into thinking they are far better than they are.

But if you look at their xG, you will see they 'lost', say, 2.72-0.33 against Team B in expected goals and against lost the xG count in those other nearby wins.

Now, it may be the case that Team A are a perfectly set up counter-attacking unit who soak up pressure and hit on the break. It's possible. But it's also easy to discount if you look back at the highlights and see their opponents missing sitter after sitter for no obvious reason.

Scorelines should not be dismissed (even lucky wins breed confidence that inspires improvement) but they need context and xG is a great way of quickly sifting out freak results from true trends.

Tip #5 - Take your betting seriously

If you want to treat betting as a serious hobby then you have to treat is as a second job. That means:

• Focus

Pick one sport – more likely one area of one sport – and specialise. You might diverge later on but in the beginning pick one area and stay there.

• Discipline

Set a consistent staking plan. Resist the temptation of hasty bets. Don’t chase losing runs or get carried away during winning runs. Set when – or whether – you can access winnings or add to your betting pot.

• Research

Stay up to date and fully informed in your area of focus. That doesn’t mean browsing the latest Premier League headlines, but digging around for serious depth of knowledge within local or foreign news outlets as well as team websites and data analysis.

• Structure

Plan your betting week, keep meticulous betting records to identify areas of strength and weakness, make sure you have set periods where you switch off from betting altogether.

• Study

Not just about the sport you are betting on but, among other things, how to construct your own prices, identifying trends and learning tips from professional gamblers.

Stay ahead of the crowd with better betting

So there you go; a starting point for your betting. There are, of course, endless tips and tricks to improve your betting, so subscribe to my mail list now for weekly updates and advice on betting.

Let us know in the comments below what your golden rules of betting are and if you’re ready to bet, try my favourite bookie, PariMatch – great odds and great customer service has made them my opponent of choice.

See you next time,